Market analysis

Upper-Secondary Market

Application pressure per upper-secondary programme, independent school market share, student flows and demographic forecast. The share of upper-secondary students in independent schools is 31.5 % nationally (2025), with large regional differences.

March 2026 · Source: Skolverket statistics database 2025, SCB population forecast, regional admissions offices

Overview

Upper-secondary education is a competitive market where schools compete for students. In the academic year 2025, Sweden has 375,449 upper-secondary students. The share in independent upper-secondary schools varies greatly — from 0.0 % in Lidköping to 100.0 % in Tomelilla.

Upper-secondary students

total 2025
375k
+9.2 % since 2016

Independent share

upper-secondary students in independent schools
31.5 %
249 municipalities with data

First-choice admission

admitted on 1st choice
60.2 %
Academic 59.5 % · Vocational 30.7 %

Population forecast

16–18-year-olds 2024–2035
-1.2 %
374k to 370k

Application pressure per upper-secondary programme

Application pressure measures how many applicants there are per available place. High pressure means high demand relative to supply and typically leads to high admission scores. Data is being progressively fetched from regional admissions offices.

Data is being synced — application pressure data is being fetched from regional admissions offices (e.g. gymnasieantagningen.se, Indra2, Region Skåne admissions). When the data is loaded, an interactive chart will appear here.

See already now admission scores per school and programme

Market share: independent upper-secondary schools per municipality

The share of upper-secondary students in independent schools varies greatly between municipalities. Metropolitan regions and commuter municipalities generally have the highest shares. The national average is 31.5 % (2025).

County averages

Highest independent share

MunicipalityIndependent %Students
Tomelilla100.0183
Storfors100.0216
Forshaga100.0278
Älvdalen100.0346
Nykvarn100.0278
Götene99.0201
Tibro91.4255
Surahammar84.953
Finspång81.1699
Hörby75.7103

Lowest independent share

MunicipalityIndependent %Students
Lidköping0.01,750
Kungälv0.01,594
Enköping0.01,504
Ängelholm0.01,488
Stenungsund0.01,443
Piteå0.01,427
Hässleholm0.01,365
Lerum0.01,344
Katrineholm0.01,272
Hallsberg0.01,212

Source: Skolverket statistics database, municipal comparison data for upper-secondary school (2025). Share = independent school students / total students registered in the municipality.

Upper-secondary students and independent school share

The trend of total upper-secondary students and the independent school share over time, based on Skolverket's official statistics. Since 2016, the number of students has increased by +9.2 % to 375,449 students.

Source: Skolverket statistics database, municipal comparison data for upper-secondary school. National totals 2016–2025.

Student flows — where do upper-secondary students study?

Upper-secondary students are more mobile than compulsory school students. Only 47.9 % study in their home municipality, while 20.0 % commute to another municipality. Of those who stay in their home municipality, 17.3 % choose independent schools, compared to 14.1 % of those who study in another municipality.

Study in home municipality

47.9 %

Commute to another municipality

20.0 %

Admitted on 1st choice

60.2 %

Source: Skolverket statistics database (2025). Refers to registered upper-secondary students per home municipality.

Programme distribution — what do students choose?

Distribution of registered upper-secondary students per programme type (2025). 59.5 % attend academic preparatory programmes and 30.7 % vocational programmes.

ProgrammeCodeTypeShare %
Social SciencesSAAcademic17.6
EconomicsEKAcademic16.9
Natural SciencesNAAcademic11.6
TechnologyTEAcademic7.0
ArtsESAcademic5.1
Electrical & EnergyEEVocational4.6
Vehicle & TransportFTVocational3.7
Building & ConstructionBAVocational3.5
Aviation TechnologyFSVocational3.2
Child & RecreationBFVocational3.1
Natural ResourcesNBVocational3.0
Health & Social CareVOVocational2.5
Industrial TechnologyINVocational1.4
Restaurant & FoodRLVocational1.4
HandicraftHVVocational1.3
Hotel & TourismHTVocational1.0
HVAC & PropertyVFVocational0.9
International BaccalaureateIBAcademic0.8
Sales & MarketingFRVocational0.7
HumanitiesHUAcademic0.5
Nationally RecruitedRXVocational0.4

Source: Skolverket statistics database (2025). Academic = higher education preparatory. Share of registered upper-secondary students, national level.

Demographic forecast — 16–18-year-olds

SCB's population forecast shows how the number of 16–18-year-olds — the primary upper-secondary target group — is expected to develop per municipality and nationally. Between 2024 and 2035, this age group is expected to decrease by -1.2 % nationally, from 373,944 to 369,598.

Source: SCB Population Forecast 2024–2070 (table BefProgRegFakN). Sum of 16+17+18-year-olds, both genders, all country-of-birth groups.

Methodology notes and data sources

Where does the market data come from?

Upper-secondary data is fetched from Skolverket's statistics database (PxWeb), the table "Municipal comparison data — Upper-secondary school — Schools and students". It contains approximately 90 key indicators per municipality with historical data since the 1990s. Population forecasts come from SCB (table BefProgRegFakN, 2024–2070).

What does the independent school share show?

The share of upper-secondary students in independent schools is calculated as the number of students registered in the municipality who attend an independent upper-secondary school, divided by the total number of registered upper-secondary students. Data directly from Skolverket (2025). The national average is 31.5 %.

What do student flows mean?

Student flows show where upper-secondary students actually study. Unlike compulsory school, a large share of upper-secondary students commute to another municipality. "Study in home municipality" includes both municipal and independent schools located in the home municipality. Upper-secondary education has free choice within collaboration areas.

What does the population forecast show?

SCB's population forecast projects the number of 16-, 17- and 18-year-olds per municipality. The sum of these three ages reflects the potential upper-secondary volume. The forecast includes assumptions about birth rates, mortality and migration.

What is application pressure?

Application pressure is the number of first-choice applicants divided by the number of available places. High pressure (e.g. 5) means five students compete for each place. Data is fetched from regional admissions offices. Skolverket's key indicator "admitted on first choice" (60.2 %) shows the reverse perspective.

How should the programme distribution be read?

The programme distribution shows the share of registered upper-secondary students per programme at the national level. Academic = higher education preparatory programmes. The total may deviate from 100% as some students attend introductory programmes or specially designed programmes not included in the standard programmes.

Back to Statistics · Admission scores per school